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<!--googleoff: index--><div class="addthis_toolbox social" addthis:url="http://pewrsr.ch/1AChVNK" addthis:title="Do lower gasoline prices make for confident consumers?"   id="addthis0"><div class="custom_images small-black"><a class="addthis_button_facebook" target="_blank" href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fpewrsr.ch%2F1AChVNK"><div></div></a><a class="addthis_button_twitter" tw:related="pewresearch" tw:via="pewresearch"><div></div></a><a class="addthis_button_email"><div></div></a><a class="addthis_button_print"><div></div></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"><div></div></a></div></div> <!--googleon: index--><script>var addthis_config = {data_track_clickback: false, ui_click: true, services_compact: "reddit, linkedin, tumblr, pinterest, google_plusone_share, more", services_exclude: "facebook, twitter, print"}</script>
<div class="meta date">December 16, 2014</div>

<h1>Do lower gasoline prices make for confident consumers?</h1>

<p class="byline">By <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/author/ddesilver/" title="Get posts by Drew DeSilver" rel="author">Drew DeSilver</a><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/16/gas-prices-consumer-sentiment/#comments" class="comment-count">Leave a comment</a></p>
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		<p><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2014/12/FT_14.12.16_gas.png" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article-', 'http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2014/12/FT_14.12.16_gas.png', '']);" ><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-265726" src="http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2014/12/FT_14.12.16_gas.png" alt="gas prices consumer confidence" width="640" height="363" /></a>Gasoline prices have been dropping since midsummer, and consumers&#8217; confidence about the economy has been on the rise. Could there be a connection?</p>
<p>According to a new <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/16/perceptions-of-job-news-trend-upward" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/16/perceptions-of-job-news-trend-upward', 'Pew Research Center report']);"   target="_blank">Pew Research Center report</a>, 70% of Americans now report hearing mostly good news about gas prices, up from just 15% in August. In truth, gas prices have been falling for months: As of Monday, the national average price of a gallon of self-serve regular was $2.554 &#8212; $1.15 less than in late June (representing a nearly one-third drop), according to the U.S. <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm', 'Energy Information Administration']);"   target="_blank">Energy Information Administration</a>. That&#8217;s the cheapest gas has been since October 2009. Also, Brent crude oil has fallen more than $45 a barrel since June and is now <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/dubai-stocks-lead-gcc-declines-as-global-markets-oil-retreat.html" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/dubai-stocks-lead-gcc-declines-as-global-markets-oil-retreat.html', 'below $59 a barrel']);"   target="_blank">below $59 a barrel</a> for the first time since May 2009.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the University of Michigan&#8217;s <a href="http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://press.sca.isr.umich.edu/press/press_release', 'Index of Consumer Sentiment']);"   target="_blank">Index of Consumer Sentiment</a> stood at 88.8 in November, up 7 points since July and its highest reading since mid-2007. The <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-preliminary-consumer-confidence-dec-11-2014-12" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-preliminary-consumer-confidence-dec-11-2014-12', 'preliminary December reading']);"   target="_blank">preliminary December reading</a> is even higher, at 93.8, though that&#8217;s still subject to revision.<span id="more-265637"></span></p>
<p>We plotted the monthly consumer-sentiment index against the monthly average price of regular gas (adjusted for inflation) and found a moderately strong negative correlation &#8212; that is, consumer sentiment rose as pump prices fell. That aligns with previous research: For example, a <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2034408" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2034408', '2012 paper']);"   target="_blank">2012 paper</a> from two researchers at Loyola University Maryland and the University of Maryland Baltimore County not only found an inverse correlation between gas prices and consumer sentiment, but used <a href="http://davegiles.blogspot.com/2011/04/testing-for-granger-causality.html" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://davegiles.blogspot.com/2011/04/testing-for-granger-causality.html', 'causality testing']);"   target="_blank">causality testing</a> to conclude that price changes predicted sentiment changes and not the other way around.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1135493##" onclick="_gaq.push(['_trackEvent', 'outbound-article', 'http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1135493##', '2009 paper']);"   target="_blank">2009 paper</a> in the Journal of Monetary Economics, which also found a cause-and-effect relationship, analyzed the University of Michigan survey results in more detail to try to get at the dynamics of how consumers respond to energy-price changes. After a major one-time price jump, the researchers found, &#8220;an increasing number of people expect general business conditions and their personal financial situation to deteriorate over the coming year in response to an unanticipated loss in purchasing power&#8230;.[T]he index for buying conditions for large household goods falls by 1.9 points. An even larger decrease is observed for vehicles&#8230;.Increased pessimism about buying conditions in response to purchasing power losses is associated with expectations of higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and lower real family income.&#8221;</p>
<p>Those attitudinal changes have real-world consequences, though not large ones. The authors of the JME paper, Paul Edelstein and Lutz Kilian, concentrated mainly on unexpected increases, rather than drops, in energy prices; they estimated that a one-time, 1% increase in energy prices was associated with a 0.08% fall in total real consumption a year later, based on 1988-2006 data. But that was considerably less than the 0.30% decline seen in the 1970-1987 data; energy price shocks, they concluded, have less effect on the overall economy than they used to.</p>
<p>Edelstein and Kilian also estimated that one year after an unexpected, permanent increase of 25 cents a gallon in the price of gas, a typical household would have reduced its expenditures by $17 a month, with most of the adjustment coming in the first six months after the price increase. Concluded the researchers: &#8220;It takes repeated surprise increases in gasoline prices to generate large effects on household consumption, but over time the effects will add up.&#8221;</p>
	
		
			<p class="terms">Topics: <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/topics/national-economy/">National Economy</a></p>
		
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								<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/17/census-bureau-proposes-dropping-some-marriage-and-divorce-questions/"><h2>Census Bureau proposes dropping some marriage and divorce questions</h2></a>
									<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/17/wealth-gap-upper-middle-income/"><h2>America&#8217;s wealth gap between middle-income and upper-income families is widest on record</h2></a>
									<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/16/with-fewer-new-arrivals-census-lowers-hispanic-population-projections-2/"><h2>With fewer new arrivals, Census lowers Hispanic population projections</h2></a>
									<a class="post active"><h2>Do lower gasoline prices make for confident consumers?</h2></a>
									<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/15/conflicts-continue-over-nativity-scenes-on-public-property/"><h2>Conflicts continue over nativity scenes on public property</h2></a>
							   
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							<a class="post" href="http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/16/perceptions-of-job-news-trend-upward/">
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								<span class="project u-s-politics right-seperator">U.S. Politics</span>
							<span class="date">Dec 16, 2014</span>
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					<h2>Perceptions of Job News Trend Upward</h2>
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							<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/12/11/retailers-still-rely-on-holiday-sales-but-not-quite-as-much-as-they-used-to/">
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								<span class="project religion right-seperator">Religion</span>
							<span class="date">Dec 11, 2014</span>
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					<h2>Retailers still rely on holiday sales, but not quite as much as they used to</h2>
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							<span class="date">Dec 5, 2014</span>
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					<h2>For retailers, the holidays mean a hiring binge &#8212; and then a purge</h2>
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							<span class="date">Nov 17, 2014</span>
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					<h2>Where near-minimum-wage workers work, and how much they make</h2>
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							<a class="post" href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/14/more-and-more-americans-are-outside-the-labor-force-entirely-who-are-they/">
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							<span class="date">Nov 14, 2014</span>
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					<h2>More and more Americans are outside the labor force entirely. Who are they?</h2>
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